基于投入产出动态分析的煤炭产业波及效应研究

煤炭作为我国能源安全的基石，其与关联产业的波及关系关乎国民经济的稳定与发展。文章首先基于2002—2015年全国投入产出表及延长表，动态分析煤炭产业与其关联产业的波及效应。然后，基于2012年全国投入产出表，构建投入产出价格模型，研究煤炭价格波动对关联产业产品价格的影响，进一步说明煤炭产业的波及效应。结果表明：电力热力的生产供应部门、金属冶炼和压延加工品部门、化学产品部门、非金属矿物制品部门为煤炭产业波及影响较大的4个部门，其经济依存关系最为密切且产业间的关联度不稳定，煤炭产业的感应度大于影响力，此外，上述产业对煤炭价格变化较为敏感，特别是电力热力的生产和供应业，敏感度达到0002 9。最后，对煤电融合、煤钢融合、煤化融合及传统能源与新能源融合等多元化发展提出对策建议。

COAL INDUSTRY RADIATION EFFECT BASED ON INPUT/OUTPUT DYNAMIC ANALYSIS

Coal as China's energy security cornerstone plays a key role in economy along with its radiation to correlated industries. This paper uses nations input/output 2002 to 2015 to dynamically analyze the radiation effect between coal industry and its correlated industries. The price model established on input/output table indicates a radiation of coal industry on its correlated industries, with four largely impacted sectors supply and production of electricity and heating, metallurgy and processing, chemicals and industrial minerals on their close economic dependence but a unstable industrial correlation, induction more than influence. The stated-above industries are sensitive to coal price change, especially the electricity and heating production and supply, with sensitiveness up to 0.0029. Diversified suggestions are presented for coal-electricity coalition, coal-steel coalition, coal-chemicals coalition and fossil energy-new energy coalition.