东北人口迁移与经济增长关系研究——基于内生人口迁移的经济增长模型

摘要：2012年以来，东北地区经济呈下行趋势，人口流失严重。为研究东北地区人口迁移对经济增长的影响，先运用时间序列数据直观分析东北三省人口结构、劳动力素质、工资水平及人力资本等要素的变动情况，再对2001—2013年GDP增长率和迁入人口数进行协整检验，又将人口迁移作为内生变量引入经济增长模型中，得出东北三省GDP增长率与迁入人口数之间存在长期均衡协整关系，且人口迁移对经济增长影响显著的结论，分析出人口结构不合理和市场经济活力不足是东北地区人口迁移影响经济增长的重要原因。提出通过充分挖掘改革红利、积极推动对外贸易来促进东北经济增长的建议。

RELATION BETWEEN POPULATION MIGRATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NORTHEASTERN CHINA BASED ON AN ECONOMIC GROWTH MODEL WITH ENDOGENIC POPULATION MIGRATION

Since 2012, the northeastern China had experienced lagging economy and decreasing population. This paper, aiming at the influence of population migration on economy, uses temporal series data to study population structure, labor quality, salary, and human capital in their changes, and conducts cointegration check on GDP growth rate with immigrants during 2001 to 2013. Migration as an endogenic variable is input into economic growth model, which shows a long term balanced cointegration between GDP growth rate and immigrants. Population migration has a big influence on economy. Irrational population structure and inactive market economy are the vital cause that population migration influences economy in northeastern China. This paper presents suggestions in improving northeastern China's economy from reforming and boosting foreign trading.