基于Oaxaca-Blinder分解法的区域经济发展差异研究——从环境规制角度分析#br#

区域经济发展不平衡问题，一直是理论和实践工作的热点。论文基于2005—2018年上海市和安徽省的省级面板数据探究区域经济发展的差异性原因。首先通过随机森林法筛选出除环境变量外的其他重要影响因素，再通过经典门槛回归模型找到环境规制水平的分界点，然后根据该分界点将样本划分为两阶段，最后基于Oaxaca-Blinder分解法讨论不同环境规制阶段下经济发展差异的原因。研究发现:1）环境信访数为35 217件是划分环境规制水平的分界点，且安徽省和上海市目前均处于环境库兹涅茨曲线的前半段，环境规制的“创新补偿效应”起着主导作用；2）在单个变量的Oaxaca-Blinder分解结果中，人力资本和信息化水平分别在低水平子样本和全样本中成为经济发展差异的最主要原因，其特征回报差异值分别是-3.161 3和0.092 6；3）在总体Oaxaca-Blinder分解结果中，特征回报差异在全样本中的贡献比例增加了15.28%，说明在整体水平下，安徽省的经济发展水平“歧视”程度更加显著。基于以上结论，建议国家和政府在完善公众参与型环境规制相关政策的同时，还应给予青少年创新环境与创新资源、适当调整各地财政支出以缩小区域间的经济发展差异。这不仅有助于了解不同环境规制情况下省市的经济发展状况，也能从各个角度为实现地区经济发展平衡提供方向。

RESEARCH ON REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT DIFFERENCES BY INTEGRATING OAXACA-BLINDER DECOMPOSITION METHOD FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF ENVIRONMENT REGULATION

Regional economic growth variance has always been a focus in theory and practice. Based on Shanghai and Anhui's 2005—2018 provincial panel data, this paper study the reason of regional economic growth variance. Random Forest Method is used to select other important factors besides environment variable, and classic threshold regression model is employed to mark the critical point between the high and low environmental regulations, which is based to divide the sample into two stages, and Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition is applied to discuss the reasons of regional economic variance under different environmental regulations. Environmental petition mounts to 35 217 marking a critical point of environmental regulation level, with Anhui and Shanghai standing at the prior half of Environmental Kuznets Curve, mainly led by “innovative compensation effect” of environmental regulations. In the single decomposed Oaxaca-Blinder variable, human capital and informatization level are the major reason of regional economic variance in the low level samples and in the whole samples with their specific return variance values at -3.161 3 and 0.092 6. In the overall Oaxaca-Blinder decomposed results, contribution proportion of specific return variance in the whole samples increases by 15.28%, suggesting Anhui's economic growth level be at a more “discriminated” level under the overall level. This paper suggests that governments shall improve public-involved environmental regulation policies, and give youth an innovative environment and resource, and adjust financial expenses to minimize the regional economic growth variance, not only helpful in understanding provincial economy under different environmental regulations, but also providing guidelines to reach a balanced regional economic growth from most aspects.