| 宏观事故总量发展趋势的规律探索及模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 邢奕,蔡卫,刘健超,刘铎.宏观事故总量发展趋势的规律探索及模型研究[J].煤炭学报,2008,33(12):1447-1451. |
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| 作者姓名： | 邢奕 蔡卫 刘健超 刘铎 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京科技大学 土木与环境工程学院，北京，100083 |
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| 基金项目： | 北京市教育委员会共建项目建设计划资助项目(XK100080432) |
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| 摘 要： | 为研究现代技术管理条件下宏观事故总量发展趋势的规律，选取企业、行业及国家层面的典型宏观事故统计量随时间的变化关系为研究对象，以数学建模的分析模式对比其中规律，并借助马尔萨斯人口学指数规律模型对机理进行描述和解释.结论表明:在一定时间区域内，国家、行业及企业各层面宏观事故总量y的发展随时间x呈指数递减趋势，其回归函数通式可用y=aerx表示，且各回归曲线的判定系数R2值证实指数规律相关关系显著.宏观事故总量的发展趋势可能呈现出分段现象，各段存在明显边界的同时，各自仍保持稳定的指数递减规律变化.利用这一规律，通过确定某一宏观事故总量发展趋势的回归函数的方法，可对未来一段时间内的该宏观事故总量值进行预测.
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| 关 键 词： | 事故统计 马尔萨斯模型 指数规律 曲线回归 事故预测 |
The exploration on the developing trend rule of macro-accident variables' amount and the researching of its model |
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| XING Yi,CAI Wei,LIU Jian-chao,LIU Duo.The exploration on the developing trend rule of macro-accident variables' amount and the researching of its model[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2008,33(12):1447-1451. |
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| Authors: | XING Yi CAI Wei LIU Jian-chao LIU Duo |
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| Affiliation: | 1.School of Civil and Environmental Engineering;University of Science and Technology Beijing;Beijing 100083;China;2.North China Institute of Science and Technology;Beijing 101601;3.Huanqiu Project Management Co.;Ltd.;Beijing 100029;China |
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| Abstract: | To study the developing trends of the amount of the macro-accidents occurring under the conditions of modern technological management,selected the correlation between the typical macro-accident statistics from three levels: enterprises,industries,the state respectively and the time as the research object,the regularity of which was analyzed by mathematical modeling,with the help of Malthus demographic exponential model to describe and explain whose mechanism.The results show that during a certain period of ... |
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| Keywords: | accident statistic Malthus model exponential function curve regression accident forecast |
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