提升路基沉降预测能力的方法

由于沉降复杂的随机动态变化过程，数学模型在沉降预测中的可靠性和预测能力总是受到限制。为了提升数学模型的预测能力，利用黄土地区某高速铁路的路基沉降监测数据，采用不同步长的3次指数平滑法模型，采用交叉验证法和后验精度分析法，对模型的拟合精度和预测精度进行比较验证，获得可靠的最优预测模型；然后，采用平行修正预测法对模型的预测结果进行修正预测，提升模型的预测能力。结果表明，采用交叉验证法和后验精度分析法可获得最优的预测模型，平行修正预测法不但提高模型的预测精度，还增加了预测长度，提升了综合预测能力。该方法原理简单，操作容易，适应性强，也可以应用到其它数学模型中。

Methods of enhancing forecasting capacity of subgrade settlement

Due to the complication and randomness of dynamic change during settlement，the reliability and predictability of mathematical models are always limited in the settlement forecasting.In order to enhance the reliability and predictability of the mathematical forecasting model，using the settlement monitoring data of a high speed railway roadbed in the loess region to establish the non synchronization of the three exponential smoothing model，cross certification analytic method and after verification analytic method were used to compare and validate the fitting accuracy and forecasting accuracy on different synchronization models for getting the best reliable forecasting model；then，parallel modification analytic method was used to modify forecasting results for enhancing forecasting capacity.The results show that the cross certification analytic method and after verification analytic method can provide a guarantee for the best forecasting model，and parallel modification analytic method can not only enhance forecasting accuracy and forecasting length，but improve the comprehensive forecasting capacity as well.At the same time，the three methods can be applied to other mathematical models，because of simple principle，easy operation and strong adaptability.