基于动力系统自忆性原理的地下工程围岩变形预测方法

将“动力系统自记忆原理”引入到地下工程围岩位移时间序列预测研究，以量测得到的围岩位移时序数据作为围岩非线性动力学演化模型的一个特解，采用双向差分原理反导出围岩位移非线性常微分方程。以此作为微分动力核，运用自记忆原理建立了地下工程围岩变形预测的自记忆模型、方法和预测程序。将该方法应用于广西铜坑锡矿505 m中段巷道和湖北水布垭电站尾水隧洞围岩位移预测，研究结果表明：围岩位移自记忆预测模型具有较高的预测精度，对不同地下工程围岩时序曲线形态具有较强的适用性。

Displacement Prediction Method of Underground Excavation Based on Self-memorization Model of Dynamic System

The self-memorization principle of dynamic system was introduced into the deformation prediction research of surrounding rock. By treating the monitored displacement time series data as the particular solution of the nonlinear dynamic evolvement model of surrounding rock in underground excavation,the nonlinear ordinary differential equation of surrounding rock deformation was deduced based on bilateral difference principle. The self-memorization model for displacement prediction of surrounding rock in under...