2025年中国能源消费及煤炭需求预测

煤炭在相当长时间内依然是我国最重要的能源资源，为预测未来我国能源消费结构，尤其是煤炭消费需求，以更好的指导煤炭工业发展，系统分析了中国近20 a经济发展、各分能源消费、能源弹性系数等变化特点，根据变化情况对经济发展、能源消费和弹性系数等进行了阶段划分。采用弹性系数法预测了2025年中国能源消费总需求;提出了煤炭等各分能源增量对能源消费弹性系数贡献值的概念和计算公式，并采用分能源增量贡献值法测算了2025年我国煤炭、石油、天然气和非化石能源消费需求。研究表明:2000—2025年，我国经济发展可划分为规模速度型、中高速增长型和质量效率型增长3个阶段;能源消费总量可划分为更多依靠高耗能重工业的粗放发展、粗放发展向高质量发展过渡和新常态高质量发展3个阶段;能源消费弹性系数以及分能源增量贡献值也明显呈现出3个阶段特征。研究认为2025年中国能源消费需求为55亿~56亿t标准煤。其中，煤炭、石油、天然气、非化石能源消费需求分别为28亿～29亿t标准煤、11亿t标准煤、6亿t标准煤、10亿t标准煤,分别占能源消费总量的50%～52%,20%,11%,18%。中国能源消费结构将进一步优化，煤炭占比由2007年最高72.5%降至2018年59%，2025年进一步降到50%~52%;非化石能源占比由2018年的14.3%增加至 2025年的18%。

Prediction on the energy consumption and coal demand of China in 2025

Coal is still the most important energy resource in China for a long time.In order to predict China’s energy consumption structure,especially coal consumption demand for guiding the coal industry development,this paper systematically analyzes the characteristics and trend of economic development,total and individual sub energy consumption and the elastic coefficient of energy consumption in China in the past 20 years,then the stages of economic development,the consumption and elastic coefficient of energy are divided according to their changes.The elasticity coefficient method is used to forecast China’s total energy consumption demand in 2025.The concept of Incremental Contribution Value of Sub energy (ICVS,i.e.contribution value of sub energy consumption increment to elasticity coefficient) and its formula are put forward to predict the consumption demand of coal,oil,gas and non fossil energy in 2025.It shows that China’s economic development can be divided into three stages during the period between the years of 2000 and 2018,which includes scale speed period,medium to high speed growth period and quality efficiency period.Total consumption of energy can be divided into three stages:extensive development of energy intensive heavy industry,transition from extensive development to high quality development,and new normal high quality development.The elasticity coefficient of energy consumption and contribution value of sub energy consumption increment also show three stages.According to the study,the demand of China’s energy consumption in 2025 will be 5.5 to 5.6 billion tons of coal equivalent,among which,coal,petroleum,natural gas and non fossil energy consumption demand are 2.8-2.9 billion tons of coal equivalent,1.1 billion tons of coal equivalent,0.6 billion tons of coal equivalent and 1.0 billion tons of coal equivalent,accounting for 50%-52%,20%,11% and 18% of total energy consumption respectively.China’s energy structure will be further optimized in next five years.Proportion of coal declined from 72.5% in 2007,to 59% in 2018 and will be 50%-52% in 2025 while the non fossil energy increases from 14.3% in 2018 to 18% in 2025.