新疆地下煤火风险分布格局探析

在分析地下煤火燃烧的影响因素的基础上，从煤的自燃倾向性、煤层与氧气接触以及诱发煤火燃烧3个方面遴选指标建立了煤火风险评估指标体系。以1 km×1 km栅格为评价单元，集成了基于GIS空间分析的新疆煤火风险评估数据集，并运用区域地下煤火风险评估方法进行风险分析与评估。结果表明：新疆地下煤火风险的总体分布趋势是中部极高，南疆偏高，而西北部偏低；各个含煤区中，吐哈与准南、乌恰含煤区煤火风险等级较高，南疆的西昆仑与阿尔金含煤区次之，西北部的伊犁与准北含煤区的地下煤火风险则较低。精度验证表明，评估精度达80%以上，可以为新疆地下煤火监测与煤火灭火策略的制定提供科学依据。

Spatial Analysis and Assessment of Risk for Underground Coal Fire in Xinjiang, China

Many severely burning underground coal fire are interspersed in the whole Xinjiang region, make it became the typical coal fire region in China. It is vital significant that to carry out risk assessment of underground coal fire in the area, for the results can be provided as guidance for proper allocation of fire extinguishing resources, improve fire extinguishing efficiency. Three elements of combustion are: the coal with self-ignition orientation, contacting with oxygen, and the external inducement. According to this, we analyzed the coal composition and structure of the geological tectonic conditions, topography, climatic conditions and human activities in the Xinjiang region, the evaluation index were selected according to local condition and the index system for underground coal fire risk evaluation were established. The dataset of coal fire risk in Xinjiang were developed with the resolution of 1km×1km, the regional risk assessment methodology of underground coal fire was applied here. Evaluation results show that: the coal fire risk is extremely high in the middle region, high in the south and lower in northwest. The underground coal fire risk is uneven distributed in each coalfield. Overall, risk level in Tuha, Zhunnan and Wuqia coalfield are general higher, it take second place in west kunlun and Aerjing coalfield in the southern region, while risk level in Yili and Zhunbei coalfield in the northwest is lower. Accuracy evaluation is carried out through the statistics of corresponding relation between risk with the location of actual coal fire zones, precision can be above 60%. The satisfactory results can be provided as scientific basis for monitoring and extinguishing strategy formulation of underground coal fire in Xinjiang.