随机介质碎块体移动概率与地表下沉

从随机介质物理模型出发，分析了随机介质碎块体移动的概率分布，得到了极不充分采动情况下，地表移动的理论预计模型，该预计方法与概率积分法相比，最大优点是不需要确定拐点偏移距，并直接将地表下沉率作为预计参数，提高了预计精度，对深部（极不充分采动）条件下的地表移动预计有参考价值。

Random medium shiver movement probability and surface subsidence

Based on the physical model of random medium, the shiver movement probability has been analyzed and the surface movement prediction model for the subcritical extraction has been achieved, its advantage campared with the probability integration method is that movement distance of inflection point is not to be determined, the surface subsidence ratio is regarded as prediction parameter directly, and the prediction accuracy is improved. The results have some referenced value to the prediction of the surface movement caused by subcritical extraction.