| 残差修正GM(1,1)模型在煤矿事故预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨瑞波,陈建宏,郑海力,饶小明.残差修正GM(1,1)模型在煤矿事故预测中的应用[J].矿业研究与开发,2011(1):73-76. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨瑞波 陈建宏 郑海力 饶小明 |
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| 作者单位： | 中南大学资源与安全工程学院;湖南省深部金属矿产开发与灾害控制重点实验室; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(50774092); 全国优秀博士学位论文专项资金资助项目(200449) |
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| 摘 要： | 百万吨死亡率是煤炭安全生产的一个重要考核指标,为准确预测煤炭行业安全生产的总趋势,利用灰色系统相关理论,建立了煤炭行业百万吨死亡率的GM(1,1)预测模型。同时鉴于GM(1,1)模型预测精度很低,建立残差修正GM(1,1)预测模型对模型进行了二次修正,并利用该修正模型成功预测出我国煤矿2009年的百万吨死亡率将首次降到1以下,权威机构数据表明,预测结果是可参考的。
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| 关 键 词： | 煤矿事故预测 GM(1 1)模型 残差修正 百万吨死亡率 |
Application of a GM(1,1) Model with Residual Error Corrections in the Prediction of Coal Mine Accident |
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| YANG Ruibo ,CHEN Jianhong ,ZHENG Haili ,RAO Xiaoming.Application of a GM(1,1) Model with Residual Error Corrections in the Prediction of Coal Mine Accident[J].Mining Research and Development,2011(1):73-76. |
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| Authors: | YANG Ruibo CHEN Jianhong ZHENG Haili RAO Xiaoming |
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| Affiliation: | YANG Ruibo 1,2,CHEN Jianhong 1,ZHENG Haili 1,RAO Xiaoming 1,2(1.School of Resources and Safety Engineering,Central South University,Changsha,Hunan 410083,China,2.Hunan Key Laboratory of Mineral Resources Exploitation and Hazard Control for Deep Metal Mines,China) |
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| Abstract: | The mortality per million tons of coal is an important indicator to assess the safety in coal production.For predicting the general trend of safety in the production of coal industry,a the GM(1,1) model for the prediction of the mortality per million tons of coal was established by using the theory of gray system.Since the prediction accuracy of GM(1,1) model is very low,a GM(1,1)model with residual error corrections was established,and it was used to successfully product the mortality per million tons of c... |
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| Keywords: | Coal mine accident prediction GM(1 1) model Residual error correction Mortality per million tons of coal |
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