煤矿区土地复垦中土地损毁预测方法研究

煤矿区土地损毁预测对于矿区土地复垦具有重要意义，而损毁预测方法的选取对矿区土地复垦可行性分析的准确性和客观性至关重要，进而影响土地复垦的决策工作。以山西省富康源煤矿、贵州省郭家地煤矿为例，对概率积分法和导水裂隙带最大高度与移动角组合判别法这2种煤矿区土地复垦损毁预测方法进行了研究，并对它们的适用性和优缺点进行了对比分析。结果表明，概率积分法理论体系完善，适用于我国北方和中部大部分平原、丘陵以及部分山地区域；导水裂隙带最大高度与移动角组合判别法容易操作，适用于我国南方如云南和贵州等中高山地区。该研究将为提高我国煤矿区土地复垦损毁预测工作的开展提供更好的科学依据与决策参考。

Research on Land Destruction Prediction Methods of Land Reclamation in Coal Mining Area

The land destruction prediction has great significance for land reclamation in coal mining area.It is critical to select the prediction methods for ensuring the accuracy and objectivity of land reclamation feasibility analysis，thus affecting the decision-making in land reclamation.Taking Fukangyuan Coal Mine in Shanxi Province and Guojiadi Coal Mine in Guizhou Province，for example，both the probability integration method and the maximum height of water flowing fractured zone for land destruction prediction are investigated and their applicability and advantages and disadvantages are anal yzed.The results show that the probability integration method owns a complete system，and is suitable for the sub-mountainous areas such as Yunnan and Guizhou in the south of China.The study provides a better scientific basis and decision-making reference for improving the land destruction prediction in coal mine area of China.