基于模糊层次和集对分析的尾矿库安全评价及预测

从尾矿库安全管理面临的决策需求出发，通过对尾矿库危险源进行分析，建立了尾矿库安全评价预测指标体系，详细探讨了差异度和集对势在尾矿库安全评价和预测方面的应用。分别应用模糊层次分析法和集对分析理论对尾矿库进行安全评价和预测，确立了尾矿库的安全等级，反映尾矿库安全管理水平，分析尾矿库安全状况发展趋势，探索了一条安全评价与预测相结合的新途径，为尾矿库的安全管理和运行提供有效支持。

Safety Assessment and Prediction of the Tailing Pond Based on Fuzzy Hierarchy Analysis and Set Pair Analysis

With the decision-making requirements of tailing ponds' security management，the index system on the safety assessment and prediction of the tailing pond was set up based on the analysis of the tailing ponds' danger sources.The application of the diversity factor and the set pair potential in tailing ponds' safety assessment and prediction was introduced in detail.The fuzzy hierarchy analysis method and set pair analysis were applied to evaluate and forecast the safe condition of the tailing pond.Then the safety level of the tailing pond was established to reflect the safety management and analyzed the development tendency of safe condition.A new way of combining safety assessment with safety prediction was explored，which can support safe operation and safety management of the tailing pond effectively.