未确知测度理论在采空区危险性评价中的应用

采空区灾害是矿山频繁高发的灾害之一。将未确知测度理论用于评价采空区的危险性，考虑到空区稳定性影响因素数值的易取性和显著性，经综合分析，选取空区岩体结构、地质构造、围岩抗压强度、水文因素、采空区布置形状、矿体倾角、高跨比、采空区体积、埋深、最大暴露面积、暴露时间、采动扰动情况、相邻空区情况等13项因素作为空区危险性的判别指标。根据空区危险性等级和评价指标的分级标准，结合采空区失稳机理和相关研究成果，建立评价指标的单指标测度函数，采用信息熵理论计算指标权重和综合测度，依照置信度识别准则进行等级判定。对某金属矿12组空区危险性进行评判。结果表明，该法的判别结论与采用模糊综合评判法和物元分析方法得出的结果完全相符，这充分说明该方法是可靠实用的，可以在工程实践中推广应用。

Application of Uncertainty Measurement Theory in Underground Goaf Risk Evaluation

Goaf disaster is one of frequently-occurred mining disasters.The uncertainty measurement theory is used to evaluate the risk of goaf.Considering that the factor value for affecting the stability of the goaf are easily grasped and of significance，13 factors of goaf risks are regarded as the discriminant index by comprehensive analysis，including rock structure，geological structure，intensity of surrounding rocks，hydrological condition，goaf shape，ore-body dip，high-span ratio，goaf volume，burial depth，maximum exposure area，exposure time，mining disturbances，and the condition of the neighboring goaf.The measurement function of each evaluation index is established based on the hazard degree of underground goaf and evaluation indexes' grading standards，and combining with the mechanism of underground goaf instability and some relevant research results as well.Then，the index weights and the comprehensive measurement of multiple indicators are calculated by using the information entropy theory.The hazard degree of underground goaf can be judged by credible recognition rule.This method is used to make evaluation on hazard of 12 underground goafs in a certain metal mine.The results show that the discrimination conclusion by this method is similar to the conclusion by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the matter-element analysis method，proving that the method is reliable and practical and can be applied and promoted to the actual engineering.