尾矿库溃坝预警体系及预警方法研究

尾矿库溃坝预警信息的辨识、获取和分析,是有效防止尾矿库溃坝的关键技术。在对121起尾矿库溃坝事故统计分析的基础上,基于风险预警原理,对尾矿库溃坝风险预警体系和预警方法进行了分析。研究结果表明:溃坝主要类型是渗透破坏和洪水漫顶;渗透破坏的警素指标包括渗透水质和堆积坝沼泽化,洪水漫顶的警素指标包括降雨、调洪库容和泄水能力,地震液化的警素指标包括地震烈度和滑坡;警源指标体系包括自然警源、固有警源和人为警源3类;溃坝风险综合预警法包括调洪库容现状的获取、入库洪水总量分析、泄流能力分析、调洪演算、渗流分析和抗滑稳定性分析等流程,以确定坝体稳定状况,作为尾矿库预警标准,确保尾矿库安全运行。

Study on Early-warning System and Method for Tailings Dam Failure

Early warning information of identification，acquisition and analysis are the key techniques to prevent tailings dam failure.Based on the domestic and foreign 121 tailings dam failure accidents，the early-warning system and method is analyzed by means of the principle of risk early warning.The results show that the typical tailings dam failure modes consist of seepage failure and dam overtopping；the warning factor index of seepage failure include water infiltration and dam swamp；the warning factor index of dam overtopping include rainfall，flood storage and discharge capacity of warning indicators；the warning factor index of seismic liquefaction include the earthquake intensity and earthquake liquefaction landslide；the source index system include natural sources warning，inherent sources and anthropogenic sources；the steps of comprehensive early-warning method to tailings dam failure include the acquisition of the flood storage capacity，analysis of the total amount of flood in reservoir，discharging capacity analysis，flood regulating calculation，seepage analysis and anti-slide stability analysis to ensure the stability condition of the dam.These indexes can be as the warning criterions to keep the safe operation of tailings pond.