| 建设用地需求量预测方法比较研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵丽,赵乔贵.建设用地需求量预测方法比较研究[J].地矿测绘,2009,25(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵丽 赵乔贵 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院,云南,昆明,650093
2. 云南省国土资源厅地籍处,云南,昆明,650224 |
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| 摘 要： | 因为上一轮土地利用总体规划建设用地需求量预测方法较为单一,故提出多种预测方法进行比较,根据比较结果选出合适的预测方法建设用地规模.以云南省为例,在建设用地现状和变化机制分析的基础上,采用6种预测模型进行对比分析,利用近11年统计数据进行验证.研究表明:以Markov模型、GM(1,1)模型、分类预测法、回归预测法、时序趋势预测法这5种预测方法得到的结果,误差较小、预测精度较高,基本符合要求.以这5种预测模型对2010年的建设用地规模进行预测,在根据相关资料修正的基础上,最终确定2010年全省建设用地规模.该研究成果可为云南省建设用地趋势变化分析和开展新一轮土地利用总体规划修编提供借鉴参考.
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| 关 键 词： | 云南省 建设用地 需求量 模型 预测方法 |
Comparative Research about Forecast Methods of Demanded Quantity of Construction Land-Use |
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| ZHAO Li,ZHAO Qiao-gui.Comparative Research about Forecast Methods of Demanded Quantity of Construction Land-Use[J].Surveying and Mapping of Geology and Mineral Resources,2009,25(1). |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Li ZHAO Qiao-gui |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Faculty of Land Resource Engineering;Kunming University of Science and Technology;Kunming Yunnan 650093;China;2.Cadastral Office;Department of Land and Resources of Yunnan Province;Kunming Yunnan 650224;China |
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| Abstract: | In allusion to the method being more single of forecast of the demanded quantity of construction land-used at the past land use collectivity plan,this paper puts forward several forecast methods,and compares them,and finds out the appropriated forecast methods combined with practice,and last firms the construction land-used size.Based on construction land-used status quo for Yunnan province,the paper applies six kinds of forecast methods to contrast the data of recent 11 years,and verifies them.The research... |
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| Keywords: | Yunnan Province construction land-use demanded quantity model forecast method |
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