2020—2030年中国废钢资源量预测

介绍了钢铁产品生命周期铁流图及自产废钢、加工废钢和折旧废钢资源量的计算方法，讨论了各个时期中国钢铁制品的平均使用寿命及3类废钢的实际收得率。在此基础上，采用该铁流图对未来中国粗钢产量走出峰值平台区后的废钢资源量进行了预测，并依此对未来的废钢资源供需状况作了分析。预测和分析结果表明，2025年以后中国的折旧废钢资源量将开始大增，导致中国废钢资源逐渐过剩，到2030年前后中国可能必须向境外出口废钢。最后，提出了扶持废钢回收产业发展、鼓励钢铁工业多吃废钢以及向发展中国家输出部分钢铁产能的政策建议。

Prediction of Chinese steel scrap resources quantity in 2020-2030

The diagram of ferrous flow for a steel product life cycle and the calculation method of home scrap, new scrap and old scrap resources quantity were introduced, and the average service life of Chinese steel product in each period and the actual recovery rate of all kinds of scrap were discussed. On this basis, by means of the diagram of ferrous flow, the quantity of steel scrap resources was predicted in the case of slowly declining production of crude steel and then the future supply and demand situation of scrap resources was analyzed. Prediction and analysis results showed after 2025, the quantity of old scrap resources in China would soar, which can cause the oversupply of scrap resources. Therefore, Chinese steel scrap may have to export to overseas in about 2030. Finally, some policy suggestions on supporting the development of the scrap recycling industry, encouraging using more scrap in the iron and steel industry and outputting part of the iron and steel production capacity to the developing countries were put forward.