中国重点区域钢铁产业能耗和CO2排放趋势分析

钢铁产业是区域工业发展的重点,也是区域协调发展的重要因素。采用自下而上的方法建立了重点区域钢铁产业能耗和CO₂排放模型,分析区域特征对钢铁产业节能减排的影响。模型以2015年为基准年,基于粗钢产量预测结果,设置了与节能减排技术普及和生产结构调整相关的4个情景,用于分析2015—2030年国内重点区域钢铁产业的能耗和CO₂排放。结果表明,降低钢产量是区域钢铁产业节能和CO₂减排的根本措施。随着重点区域的粗钢产量进入峰值区,技术普及因素的节能贡献力将持续减少,生产结构调整的节能减排贡献力则逐渐增强,成为重点区域钢铁产业节能减排的关键红利来源。同时还可得出,对重点区域钢铁产业发展影响最大的区域特征是市场需求,经济产业政策和环保要求对钢铁产业发展的影响程度逐渐增强。未来重点区域钢铁产业的发展仍以市场需求为导向,新增产能更倾向于布局在水资源丰富、交通便利的地区。

Analysis on energy consumption and CO2 emission trend of China's iron and steel industry in key regions

As the critical point of regional industrial development, the iron and steel industry is also a significant battlefield for regional coordinated development. This paper used a bottom-up method to establish an energy saving and CO₂ emission model of iron and steel industry in key regions to analyze the impact of regional characteristics on energy saving and emission reduction. Taking 2015 as the base year and based on the prediction results of crude steel output, the model set four scenarios about the popularization of energy saving and emission reduction technology and adjustment of production structure to analyze the energy consumption and CO₂ emission of iron and steel industry in the key regional of China from 2015 to 2030. The results showed that reducing steel output was the fundamental measure for energy saving and CO₂ emission reduction in the iron and steel industry. As the regional crude steel output entering the peak area, the contribution for energy conservation of technology popularization factor would continue to decrease, while the contribution for energy conservation and CO₂ emission reduction of production structure adjustment would gradually increase, which becoming the key source of dividend for energy conservation and CO₂ emission reduction of iron and steel industry in key regions. Meanwhile, the market demand was the regional characteristic that had the greatest impact on the development of iron and steel industry in key regions. Furthermore, the influence of economic and industrial policies and environmental protection requirements on the development of iron and steel industry was gradually increasing. In the future, the development of iron and steel industry in key regions would still be market-oriented, and new-added capacity would be laid out in regions with abundant water resources and convenient transportation.