水资源承载能力研究现状

在参阅大量科技文献的基础上，将水资源承载力的内涵概括为：某一地区在一定的社会、经济、技术阶段，水资源可持续开发利用的最大规模。水资源承载力具有区域性、动态性、有限性、模糊性和可增强性等特点。它具有自然一社会双重属性，既反映了水资源系统满足社会经济系统的能力，也与社会经济系统开发水资源系统的深度有关。它的大小取决于区域自然环境、水资源量、社会经济技术水平、社会经济结构和承载驱动力大小等方面。分析方法有供需平衡分析法、背景分析法、综合指标法、系统动力学方法以及动态模拟递推算法等。

Present Study on Bearing Capacity of Water Resources

Based on a large number of scientific and technical references, the paper summarizes the intension of bearing capacity of water resources as the maximum scale of sustainable development and utilization of water resources at a certain social, economic and technical stage in a certain area. The bearing capacity of water resources has regional, dynamic, limited, fuzzy and incremental characteristics. It has double property of nature and society, not only satisfying the capability of social and economic system, but also related with the depth of water resources system developed by social and economic system. Its sizes depend on regional natural environment, amount of water resources, social and economic technical level, social and economic structure and driving power. The analytical methods include balance analysis of supply and demand, background analysis, comprehensive indexes, system dynamics and recurrence calculation of dynamic simulation.