大峪河年径流量的灰色拓扑预测与趋势分析

根据灰色拓扑预测方法,利用大峪站1955—1999年径流资料进行参数率定,建立GM(1,1)拓扑预测模型群,并利用2000—2006年径流资料对模型群进行检验。检验结果中,除2006年的相对误差(40.3%)较大外,其余均较小,即模型群可用于径流预测。按此模型预测2007—2016年径流量,采用滑动平均法和Mann-Kendall秩相关检验法对原始径流序列(1955—2006年,序列1)和加入预测值的径流序列(1955—2016年,序列2)进行趋势检验。结果表明:序列1存在下降趋势,但不显著,序列2同样有不明显的下降趋势,但比序列1下降趋势显著,因此大峪河年径流时间序列总体呈下降趋势。

Analysis of Dynamic Trend and Grey Topology Prediction of Annual Runoff in Dayu River

According to the grey topological prediction method,a series of models were established to be used for the annual runoff prediction in Dayu River basin.The annual runoff from 1955 to 1999 was used to calibrate their parameters and that from 2000 to 2006 was used to check the models.For the check results,only relative error of the year of 2006 is up to 40.3%,others were less than 20.6%.So the models could be used to carry out the runoff prediction.Annual runoff from 2007 to 2016 was predicted by the models.Then the moving average method and Mann-Kendall test method were used to analyze the trend characteristics of the annual runoff series from 1955 to 2006 and from 1955 to 2016,respectively.Results show that the two runoff series have a non-outstanding decreasing trend,but the trend of the latter(1955 to 2016) is more than that of the former(1955 to 2006).Thus we can draw a conclusion that the annual runoff of the Dayu River has a decreasing trend on a whole.