| 气候变化对黄河水资源的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 王国庆,王云璋,尚长昆.气候变化对黄河水资源的影响[J].人民黄河,2000,22(9):40-41,45. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王国庆 王云璋 尚长昆 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 黄河水利科学研究院,河南,郑州,450000
2. 黄河水利委员会,河南,郑州,450003 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目!（G1999043406），国家“九五”科技攻关项目!（96－908－03－02） |
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| 摘 要： | 首先简要介绍了黄河月水文模型，然后在分析气温变化对黄河流域发能力影响的基础上，采取假定气候方案，分析了黄河主要产流区径流对气候变化的敏感性，最后根据全球气候模型ＧＣＭｓ输出的降水、气温结果、估算了温室效应对主要产流区水资源的影响，并进一步分析得出：黄河未来几十年径流量呈减少趋势，汛期径流和年径流的约分别减落２５．４和３５．７亿ｍ＾３，其中兰州以上减少最多，占总减少量的一半以上。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 水资源 影响 黄河 |
Impact of Climate Changes on Water Resources in the Yellow River |
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| WANG Guo-qing,WANG Yun-zhang,SHANG Chang-kun.Impact of Climate Changes on Water Resources in the Yellow River[J].Yellow River,2000,22(9):40-41,45. |
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| Authors: | WANG Guo-qing WANG Yun-zhang SHANG Chang-kun |
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| Abstract: | The monthly hydrological model has been introduced firstly, and then the impact of temperature variation on potential evaporation in the Yellow River Basin has been analyzed. On this basis, the sensitivity of runoff in main yield region of the Yellow River to climate changes has been also analyzed by hypothetical climate scheme. Finally, the im- pact of conservatory effect on water resources in main runoff yield region has been estimated and the variation tendency Of future runoff in the Yellow River has been analyzed further according to the results of precipitation and temperature outputted by GCMs. |
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| Keywords: | climate changes water resources impact tendency the Yellow River |
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