黄河天然年径流长期丰枯状态变化特性研究

基于Markov过程分析方法，对黄河陕县528年(1470～1997年)的天然年径流序列进行了分析，结果表明：①黄河年径流在长期的丰枯状态转移中，平水年和偏枯水年的自转移概率均较大，并且无论年径流处于何种初始状态，向偏枯水年转移的概率均大于向偏丰水年转移的概率；②黄河年径流在长期的丰枯状态转移中，出现平水年的状态占优势，而出现丰水年和枯水年的再现时间均较长，并且出现偏枯水年的概率大于出现偏丰水年的概率；③在黄河年径流长期丰枯变化的各态互转移过程中，存在以平水年为状态转移中心的邻态互转移模式，它的存在影响着年径流各态互转移的特性。

Analysis on Characteristics of Natural Annul Runoff Time Series In the Yellow River

The paper analyzes the natural annual runoff time series of 528 years (from 1470 to 1997) of Shaanxian Station on the Yellow River based on Markovian state-transfer probability. The result shows that the auto-state transfer probability of mean and low runoff is higher and the state-transfer probability of low runoff is more than the probability of high runoff, so that the states of mean and low runoff are frequently apparent and persistent. The study can also clearly demonstrate that one pattern of state-transfer is in the time series, which is adjacent state-transfer around mean runoff and influences variant characteristics of the Yellow River. These results are of important for the future research of the Yellow River.