| 关中盆地降水量变化趋势的Mann-Kendall分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘叶玲,翟晓丽,郑爱勤.关中盆地降水量变化趋势的Mann-Kendall分析[J].人民黄河,2012,34(2):28-30,33. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘叶玲 翟晓丽 郑爱勤 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 西安科技大学理学院,陕西西安,710054
2. 西安科技大学地质与环境工程学院,陕西西安,710054 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部博士点基金资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用关中盆地1959—2006年的气象资料,应用Mann-Kendall检验方法分析了关中盆地降水量的年季变化趋势和突变情况。结果表明:关中盆地降水量总体呈减少趋势;春、秋季节降水量呈下降趋势,夏、冬两季降水量均呈上升趋势;年降水量的突变发生在1992年,之后降水量总体开始下降,到21世纪依旧呈减少趋势;春季降水量在1994年发生突变,降水量明显下降;夏季降水量突变于1978年,之后降水量开始上升;秋季突变于1973年,之后降水量转变为下降趋势;冬季降水量总体呈增加趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | Mann-Kendall法 趋势分析 突变分析 降水量 关中盆地 |
Analysis of Precipitation Trend in the Guanzhong Basin Based on the Mann- Kendall Method |
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| LIU Ye-ling
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ZHAI Xiao-li
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ZHENG Ai-qin.Analysis of Precipitation Trend in the Guanzhong Basin Based on the Mann- Kendall Method[J].Yellow River,2012,34(2):28-30,33. |
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| Authors: | LIU Ye-ling ZHAI Xiao-li ZHENG Ai-qin |
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| Affiliation: | 1.College of Science,Xi’an University of Science and Technology,Xi’an 710054,China; 2.Institute of Geological and Environmental Engineering,Xi’an University of Science and Technology,Xi’an 710054,China) |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of meteorological data in the Guanzhong Basin from 1959 to 2006,the Mann-Kendall test method was used to analyze the annual and seasonal precipitation trends and mutation.The results show that precipitation has shown a decreasing trend in general,the downward trend in precipitation in spring and autumn,while the upward trend in summer and winter,and annual mutation occurred in 1992 and since the beginning of the year the total precipitation begins to fall,to the 21st century is still showing a decreasing trend;mutation in spring occurred in 1994 and precipitation has a clear downward trend;change point in spring occurred in 1978 and precipitation begins to rise.Autumn precipitation mutates and declines since 1973.The winter precipitation keeps an increasing trend. |
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| Keywords: | Mann-Kendall test method trend analysis mutation analysis precipitation Guanzhong Basin |
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