新疆叶尔羌河流域径流规律分析

针对叶尔羌河流域2个主要水文站51 a天然实测径流资料,分析了径流统计特征,采用极大熵法分析了径流系列的周期性,利用Kendall检验法以及R/S分析法分析了径流趋势以及径流趋势的持续性。结果表明:①叶尔羌河、提孜那甫河的径流变差系数分别为0.16、0.19;②叶尔羌河天然径流序列具有稳定的3 a和6 a变化周期,提孜那甫河具有稳定的6 a变化周期;③叶尔羌河径流序列具有不显著递增趋势,提孜那甫河具有显著的递增趋势;④叶尔羌河径流未来将呈微弱减小的趋势,提孜那甫河径流在未来将继续保持增长趋势。

Analysis on the Law of Yarkant River Runoff in Xinjiang Region

Based on the two main hydrological stations of the Yarkant River basin 51 years natural measured runoff data,the statistical characteristics of runoff was analyzed.The periodicity of the runoff series was obtained with the maximum entropy method.Kendall test method and the R/S analysis method were used to analyze the continuity of the runoff trends.The results show that: a) the runoff coefficient of variation of the Yarkant River and the Tizinafu River are 0.16 and 0.19 respectively;b) the Yarkant natural runoff series has a stable changing cycle of 3 yrs and 6 yrs,the Tizinafu River has a stable changing cycle of 6 yrs;c) An inapparent increasing trend for the Yarkant River runoff series,and a distinct increasing trend of the Tizinafu River;d) in the future the Yarkant River runoff series has a weak decreasing trend,and the Tizinafu River will keep the incresing trend.