基于灰色理论的水环境影响因素分析

水环境质量受诸多因素影响，水环境事故的内、外部影响因素是模糊的和不确定的，用回归分析方法或某种特定的分布函数难以准确、真实地反映水环境事故发生的规律，而采用灰色关联度分析方法，克服了回归分析和随机过程理论的不足。对一个发展变化的流域系统，关联度分析就是根据灰色发展态势的相似或相异程度来衡量水环境影响因素间的关联程度，从而找出主要影响因素。通过对某流域观测数据的分析，表明采用灰色理论方法对水环境质量影响因素进行分析是可行的。

Analysis on Gray Theory-Based Influence Factors of Water Environment

The quality of water environment is affected by several factors. The interior and exterior effecting factors of water environment cases are obscure and undefined. It is difficult to correctly and authentically reflect the rule of happening of water environment cases by the method of regression analysis or some specific distribution function. The analytical method of gray correlation degree has overcome the deficiency of regression analysis and the theory of stochastic process. For a variable and developing basin system, correlation analysis is to find out a main effecting factor and judge the correlation degree among effecting factors of water environment through the degrees of similarity or dissimilarity of grey development momentum. The analysis on observation data of a river basin shows that it is feasible to analyze the effecting factors of environment quality by using the method of grey theory.