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气候变化对黄河源区径流过程的影响
引用本文:贾仰文,高辉,牛存稳,仇亚琴.气候变化对黄河源区径流过程的影响[J].水利学报,2008,39(1):52-58.
作者姓名:贾仰文  高辉  牛存稳  仇亚琴
作者单位:中国水利水电科学研究院,水资源研究所,北京,100044
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划) , 国家自然科学基金 , 国家支撑项目
摘    要:本文应用WEPL模型分析了气温和降水变化对黄河源区年、月径流过程的影响。采用唐乃亥水文站1956~2000年的径流观测系列,对 WEP-L模型进行了率定和验证。在模型验证效果较好的墓础上,设定了气温和降水变化的8个情景方案(对历史观测气象数据资料假定气温变化±1、±2℃,降水量变化±10%、±20%),进行了模拟和对比分析。结果表明,年径流量和年内各月径流量对气温变化的响应情况不同。气温增高会引起年径流量减少,每年5~10月径流由于蒸发增大而有较明显的减少,但每年11月至次年4月径流受积雪融雪及冻土入渗

关 键 词:气候变化  径流  分布式模型  WEPL  冻土  黄河源区
文章编号:0559-9350(2008)01-0052-07
收稿时间:2007-01-15
修稿时间:2007年1月15日

Impact of climate change on runoff process in headwater area of the Yellow River
JIA Yang wen.Impact of climate change on runoff process in headwater area of the Yellow River[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2008,39(1):52-58.
Authors:JIA Yang wen
Institution:China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100044, China
Abstract:The impact of temperature and precipitation changes on annual and monthly runoff process in headwater area of the Yellow River was analyzed by using WEP L model. The model was calibrated and verified by the 45 years observed meteorological data obtained from the Tannaihai Hydrological Station. On this basis, the simul ation of 8 climate change scenarios was carried out. The results indicate that the increase of atmospheric temperature causes the decrease of annual runoff, the runoff significantly reduced from May to October due to the increase of evaporation but it will increase from November to April of next year because of the melting of snow and the change of infiltration characteristics caused by frozen. The variation of precipitation may directly affect the change of runoff, but the variation rate of runoff is larger than the change rate of precipitation.
Keywords:changes of climate  runoff  impact  distributed hydrological model WEP-L  headwater area  Yellow River
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