| 多变量自回归模型在三江平原井灌水稻需水量预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 付强,王志良,梁川.多变量自回归模型在三江平原井灌水稻需水量预测中的应用[J].水利学报,2002,33(8):0107-0113. |
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| 作者姓名： | 付强 王志良 梁川 |
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| 作者单位： | 四川大学水电学院,成都市,610065 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国博士后科学基金，四川大学青年基金资助 (4 3 2 0 2 8) |
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| 摘 要： | 应用多变量自回归模型ARV(n), 利用三江平原腹地-富锦市1985～1999年气象资料, 按水稻生育期划分6个生育阶段, 建立了井灌水稻生育期内需水量预测模型. 经模型拟合与预测, 效果良好, 可以为该地区开展节水灌溉、灌溉用水管理、合理开发利用地下水资源, 缓解地下水危机提供参考依据.
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| 关 键 词： | 多变量自回归模型 三江平原 井灌水稻 需水量 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 0559-9350(2002)08-0107-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年6月4日 |
Application of multi-variate auto-regression model to forecast water demand of well irrigated paddy |
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| FU Qiang,WANG Zhi-liang,LIANG Chuang.Application of multi-variate auto-regression model to forecast water demand of well irrigated paddy[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2002,33(8):0107-0113. |
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| Authors: | FU Qiang WANG Zhi-liang LIANG Chuang |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Sichuan University |
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| Abstract: | The models for forecasting water demand of paddy irrigated by well in different period of growth is established according to the meteorological data recorded in 1985-1999. The growth period is divided into 6 stages and the multi-variate auto-regression model is applied to the establishment of the forecasting model. The effectiveness of the model is verified by the measured data. |
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| Keywords: | multi-variate auto-regression model paddy water demand well irrigated forecasting |
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