地下水允许开采量确定的风险分析

传统的地下水允许开采量计算大都有是采用确定性模型进行的。而实际上，在其计算中存在着一些不确定性因素，它们直接影响着计算结果的精度，而“不确定性”与“风险”是紧密相联系的。为此，本文以山东省济宁市地下水资源评价为例，在详细介绍了风险分析的基本概念和风险分析方法的基础上，对地下水允许开采量的确定进行了风险分析，所采用的风险分析方法为蒙特卡罗方法，其中的随机数产生采用混合同余法。经风险分析所得结果较传统的水文地质学方法计算的结果，更符合实际情况。为在今后的地下水资源评价工作中，更加合理地、可靠地确定水源地的允许开采量提供了一种切实可行的方法，使得与地下水开采有关决策的失误减小到最低程度。

Risk analysis of groundwater allowable withdrawal evaluation

Traditional evaluation method of groundwater allowable withdrawal is based on determination model. But, there are some uncertainties in groundwater allowable withdrawal evaluation, and “risk” is closely related with “uncertainties”。The evaluation of groundwater resources in Jining City, Shandong Province is chosen as case study. Based on the introduction of the concept of risk analysis and the methods for analyzing risk, risk analysis of groundwater allowable withdrawal evaluation results was carried out for Jining City. The results obtained from risk analysis accord closer with the practical situtation then traditional methods results. The study results indicate that risk analysis is a more practical, reasonable and reliable evaluation method of groundwater allowable withdrawal, which can minimize the loss with the groundwater pumping decisions.