澜沧江流域枯水年发电效益与下游生态-出境水互馈博弈研究

针对流域河道内水资源综合利用目标之间存在的互馈竞争关系,本文以澜沧江干流景洪水电站为研究对象,基于博弈理论构建了水电站发电效益与下游生态-出境水的完全信息静态博弈模型,并耦合支付函数最大化方法,探究在枯水典型年来水总量的约束下,水电站发电效益与下游河道内生态需水-出境流量之间的竞争博弈关系。纳什均衡解表明,在下游河道内生态需水流量选择最小值参与博弈时(天然径流量的21%),景洪水电站发电效益(多年平均年发电量的80%)和澜沧江出境流量保证率(93.7%)在该典型年达到最高,总效益最大。此外,研究还发现景洪以下河道枯水期的日流量大于504 m~3/s(出境流量下限值)、800 m~3/s(航运需水下限值)的保证率由常规调度下的78.4%、40.3%提高到博弈均衡调度方案下的93.7%和48.8%。研究对于优化流域水库调蓄以协同发电和下游河道内用水综合效益具有借鉴作用。

Game study of Lancang River Basin's power generation benefit and downstream ecological water-outbound water in the dry years

Aiming at the mutual-feed competition between the comprehensive utilization of water resources in river basins, the Jinghong hydropower station on the main stream of the Lancang River is taken as the research object in this paper, and based on the game theory, a complete information static game model is developed between the hydropower generation efficiency and the downstream ecological-outbound water. The model,coupled with a payment function maximization method,is used to explore the competitive game rela-tionship between the benefits of power generation of hydropower station and ecological water demand-out-flow in the downstream river under the constraints of the total amount of water in a typical dry year. The game equilibrium solution shows that when the minimum ecological water flow in the downstream channel is selected to participate in the game (21% of natural runoff), the power generation benefit of Jinghong Hy-dropower Station (80% of the mean annual energy production) and the outflow guarantee rate of Lancang River (93.7%) reached the highest in this dry year,and the total benefit was the largest. In addition,the study also found that, the guarantee rates of the daily flow rate of the river below Jinghong greater than 504 m³/s (lower limit of outbound flow) and 800 m³/s (submarine limit required for shipping) are 78.4% and 40.3% under conventional dispatch during the dry season. While they increased to 93.7% and 48.8% under the game equilibrium scheduling scheme. The research has a reference for optimizing the regulation and storage of watershed reservoirs for coordinated power generation and comprehensive benefits of water use in downstream rivers.