| 水资源短缺风险的模糊综合评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 阮本清,韩宇平,王 浩,蒋任飞.水资源短缺风险的模糊综合评价[J].水利学报,2005,36(8):0906-0912. |
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| 作者姓名： | 阮本清 韩宇平 王 浩 蒋任飞 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国水利水电科学研究院,水资源研究所,北京,100044 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(50239090) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文选取区域水资源短缺风险程度的风险率、脆弱性、可恢复性、重现期和风险度作为评价指标，研究了水资源短缺风险的模糊综合评价方法。最后对包括北京和天津在内的首都圈水资源短缺风险进行了评价。结果表明，如果没有南水北调工程，2010年整个首都圈的水资源短缺风险将会处于高风险水平，水资源供需状况极度危险，对水资源采取有效的风险管理措施已刻不容缓。
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| 关 键 词： | 水资源 风险 综合评价 北京 天津 |
| 文章编号： | 0559-9350(2005)08-0906-07 |
| 收稿时间： | 09 6 2004 12:00AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年9月6日 |
Fuzzy comprehensive assessment of water shortage risk |
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| RUAN Ben-qing,HAN Yu-ping,WANG Hao,JIANG Ren-fei.Fuzzy comprehensive assessment of water shortage risk[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2005,36(8):0906-0912. |
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| Authors: | RUAN Ben-qing HAN Yu-ping WANG Hao JIANG Ren-fei |
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| Affiliation: | China Institute of Water Resources and hydropower Research, Beijing 100044, China |
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| Abstract: | The risk rate, weakness, possibility of recovery, period for reappear and risk level are defined as the indexes for assessing the water shortage risk of regional resources. On this basis the method for fuzzy comprehensive assessment of water shortage risk of regional resources is developed. The suggested method is used to assess the water shortage risk of capital area in China including the Beijing and Tianjin. The result shows that the water shortage risk of this area is at very high level and the contradiction between water supply and water demand will be intensive in the year of 2010 without the South to North Water Transfer Project. It means that the adoption of measures for effective risk management of water resources is a very urgent task. |
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| Keywords: | water resources water shortage risk comprehensive assessment capital area of China |
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