水库调整汛限水位的风险效益综合分析

本文在分析水库调整汛限水位所涉及影响因素的基础上，构建了调整汛限水位的综合评价指标体系，给出了各风险指标及效益指标的估算方法。并以东武仕水库为例，计算了水库调整汛限水位所带来的风险和效益，通过考虑各指标定量单位的不统一性，提出采用模糊综合评价法来合理选择水库的汛限水位。综合考虑东武仕水库提高汛限水位的防洪风险、下游地区洪灾淹没的期望损失和风险损失、及供水发电效益等各项指标，表明该水库汛限水位从现行102m调整到104m的方案是比较合理和切实可行的。

Analysis on risk and benefit of adjusting limited reservoir water level for flood control

Based on the analysis of the factors influencing the adjustment of the limited reservoir water level for flood control, a comprehensive evaluation index system for risk and benefit assessment was established and the corresponding methods for calculating relevant indexes were proposed. In consideration of the inconsistency of the units of the indexes, a fuzzy evaluation method is suggested to determine the reasonable limited reservoir water level. The proposed method is applied to analyze the flood control risk, the predictable losses downstream of the dam due to flooding and benefit of water supply and power generation of the Dongwushi Reservoir when the water level for flood control is raised from +100m to +104m. The result shows that this adjustment is feasible and reasonable.