水资源优化配置多目标风险分析方法研究

在分析水资源配置风险内涵及其可能存在风险因素的基础上,识别了水资源优化配置的主要风险因子,建立了水资源优化配置多目标风险分析模型,提出了基于随机模拟技术的水资源优化配置多目标风险评估方法,通过该方法对南水北调中线凋水后汉江中下游地区水资源配置风险值的分析,得出引江济汉补偿工程可显著提升南水北调中线调水后汉江中下游地区枯水年、平水年水资源配置方案的综合效益,降低中线调水对汉江中下游地区缺水等不利影响的风险.

Multi objective risk assessment on water resources optimal deployment

Based on the connotation of deployment risk of water resources and the analysis on possible risk factors the major risk factors were identified. The model for multi objective risk assessment on water resources optimal deployment based on stochastic simulation was proposed. The model was applied to analyze the water resources deployment risk of the downstream region of Hanjiang River after the South to North Water Transfer Project was put into operation. The result shows that the implementation of the compensative water diversion project from Changjiang River to Hanjiang River can obviously elevate the comprehensive benefit of the water resources deployment in this region during dry years or ordinary years and reduce the risk of disadvantage effects.