| 神经网络理论在黄河宁蒙河段冰情预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 王涛,杨开林,郭永鑫,霍世青.神经网络理论在黄河宁蒙河段冰情预报中的应用[J].水利学报,2005,36(10):1204-1208. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王涛 杨开林 郭永鑫 霍世青 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国水利水电科学研究院,水力学研究所,北京,100038
2. 黄河水利委员会水文局,水文水资源信息中心,河南,郑州,450000 |
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| 基金项目： | 治黄专项--黄河宁蒙河段冰情预报系统（2003Z02）.致谢：黄河水利委员会水文局水文水资源信息中心的饶素秋和邬虹霞在本研究中做出贡献. |
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| 摘 要： | 本文研究了以神经网络理论为核心的黄河上游宁蒙河段冰情预报。通过分析河流冰情特点，开发出了用Levenberg-Marquart算法改进传统BP神经网络理论进行冰情预报的数学模型，适用于流凌、封河、开河、水温、流凌密度、冰塞、冰坝等的预报。把该模型应用到2004—2005年冰情预报中，提前预报出2004～2005年冰情发生情况，具有良好效果。理论分析和实例论证都表明该神经网络模型能够进行宁蒙河段冰情预报。
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| 关 键 词： | 河流冰情 预报 人工神经网络 Levenberg-Marquart算法 流凌 封河 开河 水温 |
| 文章编号： | 0559-9350（2005）10-1204-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-07-26 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年7月26日 |
Application of artificial neural networks to forecasting of river ice condition |
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| WANG Tao,YANG Kai-lin,GUO Yong-xin,HUO Shi-qing.Application of artificial neural networks to forecasting of river ice condition[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2005,36(10):1204-1208. |
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| Authors: | WANG Tao YANG Kai-lin GUO Yong-xin HUO Shi-qing |
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| Affiliation: | 1. China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China ; 2. Hydrology Bureau of Yellow River Conservancy Commission, Zhengzhou 45000, China |
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| Abstract: | The artificial neural networks (ANNs) theory is applied to establish the mathematical model for forecasting the ice condition of the Yellow River in section from Ningxia Autonomous Region to Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. The Levenbeerg-Marquart algorithm is introduced to substitute the traditional BP algorithm to improve the computation of the model. The model can be used to forecast not only the date of ice run, freeze-up and break-up but also the temperature of water, ice flow density, ice jams as well as ice dam. The forecasted river ice condition in winter season of 2004 is in good agreement with the observation data. |
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| Keywords: | river ice condition forecast artificial neural networks Levenberg-Marquart algorithm ice run date freeze-up date break-up date water temperature |
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