基于区域灾害系统论的中国农业旱灾风险评估

作为旱灾风险管理的核心内容和关键环节,旱灾风险评估理论与技术逐渐成为旱灾研究的热点问题。为推进旱灾管理的科技化进程,本文首先阐释了基于区域灾害系统论的旱灾风险评估原理,并采用基于区域灾害系统论的模糊综合评估方法对全国层面的农业旱灾风险进行了定量计算和定性评估。研究结果表明,农业旱灾危险性区域分布规律较明显,大致表现为:西北地区黄淮海地区东北地区长江中下游地区西南地区华南地区;农业旱灾暴露性区域分布规律较明显,黄淮海地区、长江中下游地区、东北地区暴露性较大,大致排序为:黄淮海地区长江中下游地区东北地区华南地区西南地区西北地区;全国有一半左右的地区处于高脆弱等级和较高脆弱等级,主要分布在第二阶梯的东北地区、西北地区东部、西南地区;北方地区农业旱灾综合风险高于南方,中东部高于西部,其中东北地区、黄淮海地区、西北东部地区、长江中下游北部地区风险相对较高,是自然环境系统和社会经济系统耦合的结果。

Agricultural drought disaster risk assessment in China based on the regional disaster system theory

As the core content and key element identified in the practice of drought risk management, it has become a hot-button issue on how to properly assess the drought risk in the research field. To promote the scientific and technological process of drought management, the principle of drought risk assessement ased on the regional disaster system theory has been clarified, and the risk of agricultural drought disaster in the whole country has been evaluated with the fuzzy evaluation method. The results show that the drought hazard and exposure exhibits obvious regional pattern. The drought hazard in Northwest is the big-gest, followed by the North China Plain, Northeast, the lower reach of YangtzeRiver, Southwest and South China. Compared with other areas, the drought exposure in North China Plain, the lower reach of Yangtze River and Northeast, are relatively higher. The prefecture-level cities located in the second terrace are more vulnerable to agricultural drought. Generally speaking, the agricultural drought risk is higher in north than in the south, and risk in mideastern China is higher than in thewest. The agricultural drought risk in Northeast,North China Plain,eastern part of Northwest and northern part of the lower reach of Yangtze river are relatively higher.