2022年鄱阳湖流域特大干旱特征及未来应对启示

为深刻判明2022年鄱阳湖流域特大干旱特征及其影响，认清新形势下干旱灾害防控和风险管理机制策略等的改进方向，对2022年干旱发展过程进行多因素分析，应用标准化降水指数(SPI)对近72年来干旱年际、年内分布演变特征进行了多尺度分析。结果表明：(1)2022年高温持续时间之长、降雨量之少和江河湖泊水位之低均创造新的纪录，干旱发展过程急促、影响范围大、持续时间长；(2)鄱阳湖流域涝旱转换较为多见，2022年涝旱急转特征尤为显著，7—10月是1951年有记录以来最严重的夏秋气象干旱；(3)由于防御体系逐步完善，虽然遭遇有记录最严重的气象干旱，但引发的灾害程度相对其他重旱年偏轻；(4)复合环境下的旱灾涉及因素多而复杂，针对本轮干旱暴露的短板，需根据灾害风险管理理论，进行自上而下的旱灾防御体系研究，创新防御思维与措施，提高区域旱灾防御能力。

Characteristics of extreme drought in the Poyang Lake Basin in 2022 and implications for future response

In order to deeply identify the features and impacts of the severe drought in the Poyang Lake Basin in 2022,and to recognize the improvement direction of drought disaster prevention and risk management strategies under the new situation,a multi-factor analysis was conducted on the development process of the drought in 2022.The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was applied to conduct a multi-scale analysis on the inter-annual and in annual evolution characteristics of distribution of the drought in the last 72 years.The results show that:(1) In 2022,the long duration of high temperature,low rainfall and low water level of rivers and lakes all set new records.The drought developed rapidly,affected a large area and lasted for a long time.(2) In the Poyang Lake Basin,there are frequent flood-drought transitions,especially in 2022.The July-October period is the most severe summer and autumn meteorological drought since 1951.(3) Due to the gradual improvement of the defense system,although it suffered the most severe meteorological drought on record,the degree of disaster caused by it was less than that of other severe drought years.(4) The drought in the complex environment involves many and complex factors.In view of the weaknesses exposed in this round of drought,it is necessary to conduct top-down research on drought defense system according to the disaster risk management theory,innovate defense thinking and measures,and improve regional drought defense ability.