人均生活用水量预测的区间S型模型

本文在大量分析国内外不同时期、不同地区均生活用水量变化规律的基础上,总结了影响人均生活用水量大小的主要因素,认为人均生活用水量与当地社会经济发展水平有一定联系,呈现S型曲线关系,并在一定区间范围内变化.根据这一认识,本文建立了具有普遍意义的人均生活用水量预测的区间s型模型,并介绍了应用原始数据通过最优拟合的方法选择的预测方程.该模型既能给出人均生活用水量变化区间,又能预测其大小.文末以一个实例说明这一模型在预测规划水平年人均生活用水量的应用过程.

Interval S model for forecasting per capita domestic water consumption

Based on the investigation on variation law of per capita domestic water consumption in different periods and different areas in the world, the main factors affecting this water amount are analyzed. It is found that the per capita domestic water consumption is closely related to the development of social and economic development and varies in a certain range. An interval S model can be used to forecast the variation of this consumption. The optimal modeling method for selecting the forecasting equation conforming to the region to be studied is also suggested. The propose model not only gives the variation interval of per capita domestic water consumption, but also the forecasted amount. An example of application is given.