漫坝风险分析在水库运行管理中的应用

本文运用漫坝风险分析理论，综合考虑影响漫坝的洪水、风浪、库容、泄水能力四方面的不确定性，建立了东武仕水库大坝对抗洪水系列与风浪系列联合作用的漫坝风险模型，计算了水库在现行的防洪标准及调度方案下的大坝漫坝风险及安全可靠度，从而对水库漫坝安全做出评价。此外，在保证东武仕水库大坝漫坝安全可靠度高达99．999％以上的基础上，结合下游河道的泄洪能力、淹没范围等具体情况，通过计算分析，建议将水库的汛限水位提高1．5m，可使水库多蓄水1470万m^3，取得直接经济效益400万元。

Risk analysis on overtopping for operation management of reservoir

The theory of risk analysis is applied to establish the overtopping risk model of Dongwushi reservoir under the joint actions of flood and wind wave. In the model the uncertainties of flood, wind wave, storage capacity of reservoir and discharge capacity of the project are comprehensively considered. The risk and safety reliability of the reservoir are calculated according to the current flood control standard and dispatch schedule. The further investigation shows that the safety reliability of the reservoir preventing from overtopping is still higher than 99.999% even the flood control level of the reservoir is raised by 1.5m. The raise of flood control level will increase the storage of the reservoir and acquire more economic benefit.