黄河流域水资源均衡调控理论与模型研究

变化环境下缺水流域正面临日益严峻的水资源供需矛盾,用水效率与公平协调难度极大。本文在梳理总结已有水资源调控理论的基础上,建立了适用于黄河等缺水流域的水资源均衡调控理论与方法。基于社会福利学原理构建了统筹用水效率与公平的水资源均衡调控函数,通过水资源均衡调控函数引导水资源配置。综合水资源经济价值、社会价值和生态价值,建立了用水效率表征指标;统筹地区公平和行业协调,建立了用水公平表征指标。以黄河流域为例,建立了黄河流域水资源均衡调控模型,进行黄河流域水资源均衡方案分析。实例研究结果证明,该模型通过兼顾用水效率与用水公平目标,为黄河"87"分水方案优化提供技术支撑,也可为其他缺水流域或区域的水资源均衡调控提供技术方法。

Research on the theory and model of water resources equilibrium regulation in the Yellow River basin

The contradiction between the supply and demand of water resources is becoming more and more serious in water shortage basins in changing environment,making it extremely difficult to balance the efficiency and equality of water use. In this paper the theory and method of water resources equilibrium regulation suitable for the Yellow River and other water shortage basins are established on the basis of summarizing the existing theories of water resources regulation. According to the principle of social welfare science,the water resources equilibrium regulation function which considers both water use efficiency and water use equality is designed to guide water resources allocation. The water use efficiency index is designed with consideration of the economic value,social vale and ecological value of water resources while the water use equality index is designed with consideration of regional equality and industry coordination. Taking the Yellow River basin as an example, the Yellow River water resources equilibrium regulation model is built to analyze water resources equilibrium regulation schemes. The results show that this model can support the optimization of the Yellow River Water Allocation Scheme ("Scheme 1987"),and also provides a method for the equilibrium regulation of water resources in other water shortage basins and regions through considering both the water use efficiency target and the water use equality target.