年最大洪峰序列统计混乱性的初步研究

现行洪峰频率计算的统计理论基础于洪峰流量独立随机变量，然而目前出现一种议论，认为洪峰序列有些情况下虽然无短滞进相关结构，但却存在着长滞时相关结构，这种奇特的特性可称做统计混乱性，混乱性无疑增加了估计参数的不确定性，并严重影响洪水风险分析的可靠性，本文根据中国部分河流长期观测资料，分析了洪峰序列的统计变化特性，结果表明，洪峰序列短滞时相关结构特性不明显，统计混乱性也不明显，在目前情况下可不予考虑。

The preliminary study on inconsistency in statistic properties of annual flow peak series

Short term dependence of annual flow peak series for a river is in fact not existing, but its long term dependence is said to be present.Such strange behavior could be named as the inconsistency of confusion in statistic properties.This paper presents some investigation of this problem based on the analysis of observed data of nine chinese rivers.The results indicate that such inconsistency are not significant in the nine rivers involved in this study.