基于二元水循环模式的水资源评价理论方法

国内外流域水资源评价方法是随着水资源稀缺性的逐渐增强而不断发展的。时至今日，传统的水资源评价方法在描述人类活动干扰和满足不同层次水资源规划要求方面面临严峻挑战。本文提出了水资源全口径层次化动态评价方法，即以降水为资源评价的全口径通量，遵照有效性、可控性和可再生性原则对降水的资源结构进行解析，实现广义水资源、狭义水资源、径流性水资源和国民经济可利用量的层次化评价。在手段上，构建了由分布式水循环模拟模型与集总式水资源调配模型耦合而成的二元水资源评价模型，并将下垫面变化和人工取用水作为模型变量以实现动态评价。

Theory and methodology of water resources assessment based on dualistic water cycle model

A dynamic hierarchical assessment methodology of water resources is put forward in this paper, that is, according to the effective, controllable and renewable principle of water resources, the resources structure of precipitation is classified in order to realize the hierarchical assessment of water resources including general water resources, special water resources, water resources with runoff form and available water resources. The dualistic water resources assessment model combining distributed hydrological model with physical mechanism and centralized water resources allocation model is used. Furthermore, dynamic assessment of water resources is realized with changed underlying surface condition and water use condition.