基于耗散结构理论和灰色关联熵的水资源系统演化方向判别模型研究

水资源系统是一耗散结构，本文以水资源量作为序参量，来描述水资源系统的有序性和演化方向。依据协同学理论，水资源系统要维持有序就要求经济、社会、生态子系统相互协调，系统序参量之间相互协同。应用耗散结构理论和灰色系统理论，把灰关联度与熵结合起来，以序参量为基础，建立了基于灰关联熵的水资源系统演化方向的判别模型，为水资源系统分析提供了新方法。并将该模型应用于黄河流域水资源系统的演化评价，为实施临界调控提供了依据。

Water resources evolution direction distinguishing model based on dissipative structure theory and gray relational entropy

Based on the assumption of water resources system is a dissipative structure,the water is regarded as a sequential parameter to des cribe the sequence and evolution direction of system.According to the synergetics theory economy,social and ecological subsystem should coordinate with each another,in order to maintain the water resources system as an sequential system.The dissipative structure theory and gray system theory are applied to establish the distinguishing model.The model is applied to evaluation of the water resources evolution in Yellow River basin.