一种湖泊分级分期旱限水位确定与动态控制方法

在抗旱领域，我国至今尚未建立起可用于抗旱应急管理工作的水位（流量）等干旱特征指标，水文报旱、旱情预警、抗旱会商、应急响应、水量调度等抗旱应急管理工作往往缺乏科学依据。在2011年水利部制定的《旱限水位（流量）确定办法》中，首次提出了旱限水位的概念，但没有具体针对湖泊制定旱限水位确定方法，且参照江河和水库旱限水位确定方法，全年采用唯一的旱限水位作为干旱预警指标，缺少分级、分期标准，实际运用中缺乏可操作性。为此，本文综合考虑不同时期生产、生活、生态用水需求优先级和保障等级的差异性，结合湖泊来水特征，制定了湖泊旱限水位分级、分期标准，针对不同湖泊类型，建立了一套通用的湖泊分级分期旱限水位确定方法，并在此基础上提出一种实用性较强、可靠性较高的湖泊旱限水位预警与动态控制方法，为旱灾防御指挥决策提供科学依据和技术支撑。本文提出的湖泊分级分期旱限水位确定与动态控制方法在洪湖试点得到了成功应用。

A method for determining and dynamic controlling the limit water level of lakes by classification and stages

In the field of drought resisting, China has not yet established drought characteristic indexes such as water level (flow) that can be used for drought emergency management. Drought emergency management such as hydrological drought reporting, drought warning, drought consultation, emergency response, and water scheduling often lacks scientific basis. According to Measures for the Determination of Drought Limit Water Level (flow) formulated by the Ministry of Water Resources in 2011, the concept of drought limit water level (DLWL) was put forward for the first time, but the method for determining the DLWL was not specifically formulated for lakes. Referring to the methods of determining DLWL of rivers and reservoirs, only one DLWL is used as a drought warning indicator throughout the year, which lacks classification and staging standards, and lacks operability in practice. Therefore, considering the differences of production, living and ecological water demand priorities and guarantee levels in different periods, combined with the water inflow characteristics of lakes, this paper formulates the classification and staging standards of Lake DLWL, establishes a general method for determining Lake DLWL by classification and staging according to different lake types,and puts forward a practical method. The reliable early warning and dynamic control method of Lake DLWL provides scientific basis and technical support for drought prevention command and decision-making. The determination and dynamic control method of drought limited water level proposed in this paper has been successfully applied in Honghu Lake.