基于支持向量机的水资源短缺风险评价模型及应用

本文阐述了支持向量回归机的算法原理，将风险评价归纳为一个支持向量回归问题，建立了基于支持向量机的水资源短缺风险评价模型和方法。采用风险率、脆弱性、可恢复性、事故周期和风险度等作为区域水资源短缺风险程度的评价指标，建立了综合评价体系。本方法应用于闽东南地区的水资源短缺风险评价，评价结果显示：到2010水平年，闽东南地区的水资源短缺风险较高，需要采取风险调控措施。

Model for assessing water shortage risk based on support vector machine

Based on the principle of support vector machine a model for assessing water shortage risk is proposed. In the model, the assessment of risk is regarded as the regression of a support vector machine and the risk rate, weakness, possibility of recovery, period of reappear and risk level are defined as the indexes for establishing the comprehensive assessment index system for water shortage risk of regional water resources. The application to analysis of the southeast area of Fujian Province, China, shows that the proposed model is feasible and the result indicates the water shortage risk level in this area will be high in 2010, so that measures for risk management must be adopted in the near future.