基于模糊概率的水资源短缺风险评价模型及其应用

本文基于模糊概率理论建立了水资源短缺风险评价模型，可对水资源短缺风险发生的概率和缺水影响程度给予综合评价。首先构造隶属函数以评价水资源系统的模糊性；其次利用Logistic回归模型模拟和预测水资源短缺风险发生的概率；而后建立了基于模糊概率的水资源短缺风险评价模型；最后利用判别分析识别出水资源短缺风险敏感因子。作为实例对北京市1979—2005年的水资源短缺风险研究表明，水资源总量、污水排放总量、农业用水量以及生活用水量是北京市水资源短缺的主要致险因子。再生水回用和南水北调工程可使北京地区2010和2020年各种情景下的水资源短缺均降至低风险水平。

Model for evaluating water shortage risk based on fuzzy probability and its application

Based on the theory of fuzzy probability, a model which can be used to comprehensively evaluate both the probability and the impact degree due to water shortage risk is developed. In the model a membership function is constructed to evaluate the fuzziness of water resources systems, and a logistic regression model for simulating and forecasting the occurrence probability of water shortage risk is established. On this basis, an evaluation model for water shortage risk based on fuzzy probability is obtained. The sensitive factors of water shortage risk are identified by discrimination analysis. As an example, the water shortage risk of Beijing City from 1979 to 2005 is analyzed. The result indicates that the quantities of water resources, sewage discharge, agricultural water consumption and domestic water consumption are main factors affecting the risk of water shortage. After taking measures of promoting the water reuse and receiving the water provided by South to North Water Transfer Project, the water shortage risk of Beijing City in 2010 to 2020 can be reduced to a comparative low level.