梯级水电站负荷调整方案评价指标体系及决策模型

梯级水电站负荷调整方案的优选直接关系到发电部门可获取的效益及面临的风险,鉴于现有风险-效益协同评价指标体系不完备,尚无法对其进行全面、有效评价与决策的问题,本文基于梯级水电站实际发电运行过程,建立了负荷调整风险效益协同评价指标体系,并给出了"发电风险率"、"负荷变动风险率"和"风险机会损失"等新指标的定义与计算方法;同时,针对传统灰靶决策模型忽略指标相关性的不足,将相关系数矩阵引入该模型中以代替马氏距离中的协方差矩阵,并定义相对靶心距来实现非劣方案的评价决策,由此建立了一种改进灰靶决策模型;将所建指标体系与改进模型应用于雅砻江流域锦官电源组梯级水电站负荷调整方案评价,计算结果与传统灰靶决策模型和基于马氏距离的灰靶决策模型相比,本文模型的评价结果更具合理性,可为科学实施梯级水电站负荷调整提供重要的依据和技术支撑。

Assessment index system and decision-making model for load adjustment schemes of cascade hydropower stations

The preference of cascade hydropower stations'' load adjustment schemes directly impacts the benefits and risks of power generation sector. However, due to incompleteness of existing risk-benefit synergy assessment index system, it is unable to conduct a comprehensive and effective assessment on load adjustment schemes so far. This article aims to establish a systematic risk-benefit synergy assessment approach to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of load adjustment schemes assessment. In this article, authors proposed a comprehensive index system of risk-benefit synergy assessment based on the actual cascade hydropower stations operation process;defined generation risk rate, load fluctuation risk rate, and opportunity loss risk as new indexes then put forward their calculation formulas;besides,introduced the correlation coefficient matrix to replace the covariance matrix of Mahalanobis distance to address the deficiency of the traditional grey target decision-making model in terms of insensitivity of relative indexes; in addition, used the relative bull''s-eye to calculate and sort the non-inferior sets. According to the case study of Jinping-guandi cascade hydropower stations of the Yalong River in which a comparison was performed between the traditional grey target model and the grey target model based on Mahalanobis distance,the methodology proposed by this article shows more reasonable results, which can be an important reference for future research on load adjustment of cascade hydropower stations.