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时间序列模型在吉林西部地下水动态变化预测中的应用
引用本文:杨忠平,卢文喜,李 平.时间序列模型在吉林西部地下水动态变化预测中的应用[J].水利学报,2005,36(12):1475-1479.
作者姓名:杨忠平  卢文喜  李 平
作者单位:吉林大学,环境与资源学院,吉林,长春,130026
基金项目:水利部科技创新项目(SCX2000-50)
摘    要:运用时间序列分析理论对吉林西部地下水位动态变化进行了分析和预报。首先采用多项式拟合提取水位动态的趋势分量,而后运用频谱分析方法中的谐波分析提取其中的周期成分,利用自回归(AR)模型模拟随机分量,最后将三者线性叠加建立预报模型,并给出了模型精度检验方法。通过模型分析,可知该区地下水位变化存在两个主要周期(1年和7~9年),揭示了地下水位的季节性变化和多年变化规律。2002年以后的预报结果表明部分地区的地下水位将持续下降,应及时加以控制。

关 键 词:时间序列分析  地下水动态  随机模拟  吉林西部
文章编号:0559-9350(2005)12-1475-05
收稿时间:2005-03-16
修稿时间:2005年3月16日

Application of time series model to predict groundwater regime
YANG Zhong-ping,LU Wen-xi,LI Ping.Application of time series model to predict groundwater regime[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2005,36(12):1475-1479.
Authors:YANG Zhong-ping  LU Wen-xi  LI Ping
Affiliation:Jilin University, Changchun 130026, China
Abstract:The time-series analysis theory is applied to analyze and forecast the dynamic variation of groundwater in west part of Jilin Province, China. First, the trend component of groundwater level dynamic variation is picked up by polynomial calibration, the periodic component is extracted by spectrum analysis and the stochastic component is simulated by using autoregression (AR) model. Finally, a forecasting model is established through linear superposition of these components and the method for verifying the accuracy of the model is suggested. The analysis of this model shows that there are two major periods in the variation of groundwater level in this area by which seasonal and secular variation of groundwater level is revealed. The prediction for years after 2002 indicates that a continuing decline of groundwater level exists in some district of this area, which must be controlled in time.
Keywords:time-series analysis  dynamic variation of groundwater  stochastic simulation  west part of Jilin Province
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