水库防洪预报调度的风险分析

本文从水文预报误差的不确定性分析出发，将短期洪水预报精度评定指标转化为入库洪水过程的随机特征值，并引入水库调洪演算随机数学模型，从而实现水文预报风险向预报调度风险的转化，为定量考察预报调度风险率、合理选择动态的汛限水位提供了科学的依据。通过这一方法论证了水文预报精度对水库防洪预报调度风险率的影响，表明提高水文预报精度将有利于降低水库调洪风险率。

Risk analysis for flood control operation of reservoir

Aiming at solving the uncertainty problem of hydrological forecast error, the evaluation indicators of short-term flood forecast are transformed into the stochastic eigenvalues of the process of flood inflow. Then, the stochastic mathematical model of flood routing is introduced to transform the risk of hydrological forecasting into risk of flood control. Thus, the quantitative determination of risk probability of flood control forecasting and the reasonable selection of dynamic limited water level can be realized. By means of this method the impact of the hydrological forecasting on risk of flood control is analyzed. The result shows that the promotion of hydrological forecasting accuracy will result in the reduction of the risk of flood control operation.