径流演变的人类驱动力模型

本文以三峡库区御临河小流域为例，研究人类驱动力对其径流演变的影响。首先分析该流域从1973～2002年的年径流量时间序列变化特征，发现径流量的变化以1991年为突变点分为前后2个阶段，前阶段是自然驱动力占主导地位，而后一阶段则是人类驱动力占主导地位；其次以径流变化突变前1973～1991年的数据建立自然驱动力模型，而后对比分析了1991年后实测值与模型输出值，其差值即为人类驱动力影响值，分析结果表明御临河年径流总量总体上趋于减少；最后对流域人类驱动力因素进行了综合分析，分析结果认为人口增长、兴建水利工程和农业耕作方式改变是主要驱动因子。

Model of human driving force affecting the evolvement of runoff

The variation of annual runoff in Yulin River watershed is analyzed based on the observation data from 1973 to 2002. It is found that the runoff tends to drop down quickly since 1991. It may assume that the variation of runoff before 1991 is due to natural force and the human force plays dominant role in the changing after 1991. A model of natural driving force affecting the evolvement of runoff is established based on the data from 1973 to 1991 by means of multivariate regression analysis on driving force of climate. The model is applied to predict the runoffs after 1991. Obviously, the differences between the predicted runoffs and observation data after 1991 are due to the influence of human being activities. Thus, the model of human driving force affecting the evolvement of runoff is established based on the analysis of these differences. The human driving forces include the growth of population in the river basin, construction of water projects and the changing of the way of agricultural cultivation.