基于风险管理的混凝土坝变形预警指标拟定研究

在混凝土坝风险理论和结构计算拟定变形指标方法基础上，研究建立基于风险管理的变形预警指标拟定方法，使得拟定的预警指标不仅满足工程安全需要，同时体现大坝风险的要求。首先根据混凝土坝工程安全运行与下游经济社会发展要求，确立大坝的风险等级标准；其次分析研究相应风险等级标准条件下，混凝土坝的破坏路径与模式；以混凝土坝溃决模式与坝体结构特性转异为纽带，借助专家经验，设置结构计算的荷载条件与约束标准，再采用有限元计算获得相应的变形预警指标值，进而建立了基于风险管理的混凝土坝变形预警指标拟定方法。以某水电站工程为案例，拟定了该水电站低风险运行的变形预警指标值，验证了该方法是切实可行的。

Study on early warning index of concrete dam's deformation based on the risk management

This paper aims to establish a method for determining early warning index of concrete dam deformation on the basis of risk management, based on the prepared deformation index of concrete dam by risk theory and the structure calculation method, which satisfies the requirement of engineering safety management and shows dam risk measurement. According to the requirement of the concrete dam engineering safety operation and the downstream economic and social development, the risk grade standard of the dam is established at first. Then, the failure path and model of concrete dam are analyzed and studied under the condition of the corresponding risk grade standard. By expert experience, with concrete dam failure mode and dam structure characteristics abnormality as a link, the load conditions and the constraint criterion of structure calculation are set. Finally, the corresponding deformation early warning index value is obtained by finite element calculation. Thus, the early warning index determining method of concrete dam deformation based on the risk management is put forward. Taking a hydropower station as an example, the early warning index value of the low risk operation is proposed,which proves that the method is feasible and effective.