尾矿库溃坝风险指标体系及风险评价模型研究

运用相关性分析，将与尾矿坝安全有关的参数和设计指标进行归类，建立了相互独立指标的尾矿库溃坝风险指标体系，并应用模糊理论建立了尾矿库溃坝风险评价模型。随后通过国内尾矿库专家系统对体系各指标进行的评估，结合层次分析法，得到了各指标的权重，并将指标分成4个级别，建立了分级标准，从而提出尾矿库运行期安全等级的划分方法。实例分析表明，本文建立的尾矿库溃坝风险指标体系和风险评价模型，可以应用于评估尾矿库运行期的安全等级。

Risk index system and evaluation model for failure of tailings dams

Based on the correlation analysis method the design and operation parameters and indexes related to the safety of tailings dams are classified to establish the index system for evaluating the risk of dam failure. The fuzzy clustering identification theory is applied to establish the model for evaluating the failure risk of dams. The weights of the indexes affecting the safety of dams are determined by experts and combining with hierarchy analysis method. On this basis, the method for classifying the safety grades of dams and corresponding standard are proposed accordingly. The application indicates that the proposed model and index system are feasible.