基于分布式水文模拟的干旱评估预报模型研究

针对鄱阳湖地区水资源季节分布不均及近期干旱问题，本文从防洪与抗旱统筹的角度，提出加强该地区洪水资源利用以解决枯季干旱缺水的初步设想。在对洪水资源潜力估算基础上，提出了加强洪水资源利用的主要途径。进而借鉴国内外经验，重点探讨在湖口设置控水工程以协调防洪与抗旱及生态环境保护之间关系。初步认为鄱阳湖洪水资源丰富，加强利用是必要的，通过在湖口设置可调节式溢流堰结合U型活动闸的仿都江堰式生态水利工程，在不影响防洪和江湖联通性的前提下，适度延缓汛后湖水外泄，以备枯季抗旱和维系湖区水生环境。

A new model of drought estimation and prediction based on distributed hydrological simulation

According to the more frequen droughts happened recently in Poyang lake area, in the paper, a proposal of restoring more water in flooding season by lake itself, for making up the shortage of water resource in low water season. Basing on the potential analysis of flood resource utilization in the Poyang Lake, the approaches and measures have been put forward and discussed. Referring to the successful experience in the active gate which building on the river, a control project on the mouth of Poyang Lake for retarding the drainage of water after flooding season, has been addressed by making overall plans and take flood prevention and anti-droughts into consideration. Resoult shows, the potentiality of flood water utilization in Poyang Lake is great, and it is most essential for holding more water by lake itself after flooding to guard against the droughts. The similar approach to Dujiang Weirs, the U-shape active gate combining with overflow weirs, is better suitable to retard moderately water outflow, and less disturbed to fish and ship.